Ice-Free Summers Coming Soon To Arctic
Dear EarthTalk: What are the potential environmental implications of an ice-free Arctic in the summer months as climatologists are predicting by the end of the decade?
—John D. Smythe, Fairbanks, AK
Scientists say that we are quickly approaching the summer that will bring an ice-free Arctic, which is projected to occur within the decade. While summers in the Arctic are nowhere near the sweltering heat that we have come to know, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to heat the planet, temperatures are rising to the point where ice cannot remain. And depending on the future emissions scenario, we could see this condition eventually appear in the winters as well.
First, it is important to understand what this event means. An ice-free Arctic actually means that the ocean contains less than 1 million square kilometers of ice, not no ice at all. Temperatures are rising even further when there is less ice in the water, because the oceans can absorb more light, melting the remaining ice and warming the waters. Normally, the ice helps to regulate Earth’s temperatures, so an ice-free arctic poses the risk of further global warming.
There are several additional environmental implications of an ice-free Arctic, including the effect on animals and marine ecosystems, who rely on the ice to survive. For instance, polar bears use ice as a platform for hunting, and it is a way for other marine mammals to rest, breed, or find food. The prospect of ice-free summers in the Arctic puts the food-web at risk of collapse.
Furthermore, there are many communities who live close to the water that will be at risk for flooding. If we see ice continue to melt, especially to the extreme of an ice-free arctic, then sea levels will rise. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt completely, scientists predict a global sea level rise of 20 feet, which would flood coastal communities and make extreme weather more likely.
As ice melts, there are more opportunities for shipping routes throughout the Arctic. While this seems appealing, it is in reality quite dangerous, as these areas are usually isolated and hard to access.
Another major concern is the release of carbon that is contained in permafrost. Permafrost is frozen ground that stores methane. When it melts, the methane is released, contributing to higher temperatures and therefore melting even more permafrost and ice.
Climatologist Céline Heuzé notes that “Because the first ice-free day is likely to happen earlier than the first ice-free month, we want to be prepared. It’s also important to know what events could lead to the melting of all sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.” Cutting emissions remains the most important factor in whether an ice-free Arctic will occur. There are many ways to help reduce your own carbon footprint, including choosing public transport, being mindful of energy use, and installing renewable energy if you can.
CONTACTS